A new study by the World Health Organisation, says between 83 000 to 190 000 people in Africa could die of Covid-19 and 29 million to 44 million could get infected in the first year of the pandemic if containment measures fail. | Day42ofLockdown
Durban - According to a new study by the World Health Organization, between 83 000 to 190 000 people in Africa could die of Covid-19 and 29 million to 44 million could get infected in the first year of the pandemic if containment measures fail.
The model predicts the observed slower rate of transmission, lower age of people with severe disease and lower mortality rates compared to what is seen in the most affected countries in the rest of the world. WHO regional director for Africa, Dr Matshidiso Moeti, said while Covid-19 likely won’t spread as exponentially in Africa as it has elsewhere in the world, it likely will smoulder in transmission hotspots.
There would be an estimated 3.6 million - 5.5 million Covid-19 hospitalisations, of which 82 000 - 167 000 would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 52 000 - 107 000 would be critical cases requiring breathing support. Such a huge number of patients in hospitals would severely strain the health capacities of countries.
The study recommends that countries across Africa need to expand the capacity particularly of primary hospitals and ensure that basic emergency care is included in primary health systems.
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