The possible outcomes of the US-Taliban talks, explained
The latest negotiations between the Taliban and the US have come closer to fruition — which might be an end to the insurgent group's war against the Afghan government, a heavily militarised state installed by the US in Kabul following its invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.
But after the US pull-out from the continuing negotiations in September, following an incident in which a US soldier was killed in Afghanistan, no one is completely sure that the ongoing talks will lead a peaceful transition in the war-torn country. He also believes that “maybe better than any time in the last couple of decades, there is an opportunity for peace”.
The agreement will create a political mechanism in which the US military will withdraw from Afghanistan in exchange to the Taliban promise that the group will not harbour any terrorist organisation which aims to attack the West. As an even more strengthened group with the US pull-out and a more legitimate group thanks to an agreement with Washington, the Taliban, which has already controlled a good part of the country, will have the upper hand against its counterparts in the supposed intra-Afghan talks.
Afghan former President Hamid Karzai and Head of Political Office of the Taliban Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanakzai head for a conference arranged by the Afghan diaspora, in Moscow, Russia February 5, 2019. “When the process of releasing of 5,000 [Taliban] prisoners . . . is completed, then intra-Afghan talks will begin,” Hanafi said.
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