Some Democratic hopefuls are more popular than the share of Democrats with an opinion of them would indicate. FiveThirtyEight breaks it down:
candidates, led by former Vice President Joe Biden, have net favorability ratings above +30 percentage points,the share of Democrats who can form an opinion of them is above 55 percent. Meanwhile, 11 major candidates are relatively unknown . Note that, almost by definition, these candidates do not have very high net favorability ratings .
This leads to a strong relationship between a candidate’s net favorability rating and the share of voters who can form an opinion of her, represented by the trend line in the chart below. However, some Democratic hopefuls are more popular than the share of Democrats with an opinion of them would indicate , while others are less popular . For example, based on the 62 percent of Democrats with an opinion of Sen. Cory Booker, we’d expect him to have a net favorability rating of +33 points.
Forty-six percent of Democrats knew enough about de Blasio to form an opinion of him, but his net favorability rating is -1 when it “should” be around +20. Yes, that means more members of de Blasio’sdislike him than like him. That’s a huge handicap to de Blasio’s chances of winning the nomination. After de Blasio, Reps. Tulsi Gabbard and Tim Ryan are the farthest below the trend line, indicating that they are unexpectedly unpopular. Only about a third of Democrats are familiar with them, and their net favorability ratings are lower than they “should” be by 9 points and 6 points, respectively, based on the statistical relationship between the two. The news is better for Sen. Kamala Harris and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee: They are beating expectations by the widest margins.
For heavily polled candidates, we can also compare their favorability ratings in the May polls to what they were in January and February, the
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