A meteorological look into the current state of the season, and if more systems are likely to develop.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has taken a breather — mostly. There hasn’t been a single hurricane since Nigel weakened on Sept. 22, and if October ends without any storms reaching hurricane strength — which is possible — it would be the first such month to pass hurricane-free since 2013.
But there are systems to track, like a tropical wave about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands that looks poised to develop. It could become the 20th named storm of the 2023 season, churning toward the Lesser Antilles and bringing rain and wind impacts into Friday. Why the sudden drop in activity? Blame increasing shear over the open Atlantic. Shear, or a disruptive change of wind speed and/or direction with height, knocks tropical cyclones off-kilter and prevents their strengthening. Shear typically increases over the Atlantic’s Main Development Region — the zone between Africa and South America — this time of year.If you’re going to get a storm in October, it’s usually near the Eastern Seaboard or in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean.
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