The only certainty of America’s urban politics is that there will be more cops.
What has not changed, though, is the widespread belief that hiring more cops is the best way to reduce crime, despite the fact that there is little to no conclusive evidence this is true.
That’s not to say we’re totally flying blind. There’s growing evidence that the crime wave of 2020 stemmed from the pandemic-driven shuttering of institutions, like schools and community centers, that offer support to young people in crisis. There’s also evidence that crime rises after high-profile incidents of police abuse, like the murders of Floyd and Tyre Nichols in Memphis. On the flip side, a more visible police presence can function as a deterrent to some offenses.
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