When is the RBA Interest Rate Decision and how could it affect AUD/USD? – by anilpanchal7 RBA Events AUDUSD CentralBanks InterestRate
It’s worth noting the RBA is likely to throw dice on the dove’s side as traders remain divided over the Aussie central bank’s peak rate, despite major consensus favoring a no rate change announcement from the RBA. That said, the RBA’s benchmark rate is around 3.85% at the latest.
Given the recently mixed statements in the RBA minutes, as well as mostly upbeat inflation and wage numbers, not to forget the talks of policy pivot, the traders will be more interested in hearing about the end of the rate hike trajectory. The same makes today’s RBA crucial for the AUD/USD pair traders to watch for clear directions.Last week we revised up our terminal rate call in Australia 4.35%, as we no longer see 4.10% as sufficient to bring inflation back to the target quick enough. Nonetheless, we see it as a line ball call whether the RBA hikes at today’s meeting or waits until July, though favor a hike today at the margin.
Should the RBA shows readiness to extend the rate hike trajectory, or surprises the markets by doing the same in today’s RBA Rate Statement, the AUD/USD may have a further upside to trace. Until then, the AUD/USD may remain on the bear’s radar. Technically, AUD/USD rebounds from the support line of a falling wedge established in late December 2022, as well as stays beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023, which in turn joins upbeat oscillators to favor the Aussie pair buyers. With this, the quote is all set to confront a convergence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-DMA, around 0.6660.
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