When is Australia inflation data and how could it affect AUD/USD? – by anilpanchal7 AUDUSD Inflation RBA Australia Events
The fourth quarter release of the Australian Consumer Price Index , as well as the monthly CPI for December, scheduled for publishing on early Wednesday, appears the crucial data for the AUD/USD pair traders. The reason could be linked to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent hesitance in defending the hawkish monetary policy, not to forget the downbeat Aussie pair’s trading near the multi-day high.
Not only the headline CPI Q4 and the monthly inflation numbers but the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for Q4 also appears crucial to watch for the AUD/USD pair traders. Forecasts suggest that the headline CPI is expected to ease to 1.6% QoQ versus 1.8% prior but the monthly CPI could rise to 7.7% YoY from 7.3% previous readings. Further details signal that the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI may inch up to 1.9% from 1.8%.The trimmed mean, non-tradables and services inflation are the key measures to watch. We expect all of these measures to have lifted strongly in Q4, and for trimmed mean inflation to rise to 6.7% y/y, exceeding the RBA’s forecast of 6.5% y/y.
That said, the Aussie pair is likely to witness profit booking should the Aussie inflation data disappoint as the RBA appears running out of steam to defend the hawkish interest rate moves. It should be noted that the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI will gain major attention and hence any minor change in the headline CPI data may not affect the AUD/USD to a much extent.
Technically, the 200-week Simple Moving Average near 0.7070 appears the key hurdle for the AUD/USD buyers to watch in case of the pair’s further upside. Until then, the firmer RSI and looming bull cross on the daily
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