If Donald Trump wins the U.S. election, his plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese goods could be a 'major downside growth risk' to China, according to Goldman Sachs.
If Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election, his plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese goods could be a "major downside growth risk" to China , according to Goldman Sachs.
"We are seeing tariff narratives, not only in the U.S., but across other major trading partners of China's," she said. "So this is not going to be a sustainable driver of growth for China." U.S. officials such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have said that China's policies to boost its industrial capability and technological self-reliance have led toIn his first interview since he was selected as Trump's running mate, Vance told Fox News that instead of the war in Ukraine, China was the "real issue" for the U.S.
The downside risk from potentially higher U.S. tariffs under Trump would primarily come from the greater uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, as well as pressure on the Chinese yuan, Goldman's Shan said. She pointed out that tariffs in 2018 did not significantly dent China's exports to the U.S."Policymakers need to think about domestic demand and focusing on something that is more persistent and sustainable for the growth outlook," Shan told CNBC on Tuesday.
She said Chinese authorities would likely be reluctant to roll out major stimulus in the next few months in order to save resources in the case of greater economic weakness and increased tariffs.Not all analysts believe a possible Trump presidency will prove detrimental to China, though.
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