Since Emmanuel Macron became French leader five years ago, the country’s equities have prospered. But with investors on edge over his presidential election opponent’s less business-friendly policies, the market’s future hinges on the outcome.
According to the polls at least, Macron remains ahead of Marine Le Pen, a result that most strategists and analysts would prefer. Yet the contest is close and few are prepared to rule out a surprise.“The world has enough problems without a Le Pen presidency in France,” said Matteo Brancolini, a fund manager at BPER Banca in Milan. “Her victory would destroy the united EU response that followed the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A collapse in that unity would be a huge upset for markets.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Laurent Douillet and Tim Craighead, higher commodity prices and resilient luxury-goods and industrial companies could allow the CAC to beat the market earnings consensus and surpass the Stoxx 600’s growth expectations. Separately, a change in policy may impact companies in which the French state holds stakes, which can be found here. As well as those in which state-owned investment company BPI France holds stakes, which can be found here.
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