The past week has seen a dizzying escalation in the nearly yearlong conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
First came two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah — deadly attacks pinned on Israel that also maimed civilians across Lebanon.
Israel and Hezbollah have launched repeated strikes against each other since the Gaza war began, but both sides have pulled back when the spiral of reprisals appeared on the verge of getting out of control, under heavy pressure from the U.S. and its allies. But in recent weeks, Israeli leaders have warned of a possible bigger military operation to stop attacks from Lebanon to allow hundreds of thousands of Israelis displaced by the fighting to return to homes near the border.
On Friday, an Israeli airstrike brought down a high-rise building in Beirut’s southern suburbs, killing Ibrahim Akil, the commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit, and other top unit leaders. Israel said Akil led the group’s campaign of rocket, drone and other fire into northern Israel. At least 45 people were killed in that attack and more than 60 wounded.
The Israel-Lebanon border has seen almost daily exchanges since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7. Before Monday, the exchanges had killed around 600 people in Lebanon – mostly fighters but also about 100 civilians — and about 50 soldiers and civilians in Israel. It has also forced hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate homes near the border in both Israel and Lebanon.
Meanwhile, as fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has increased its forces along the Lebanese border, including the arrival of a powerful army division believed to include thousands of troops. But Israel could have a more ambitious goal this time: to seize a buffer zone in south Lebanon to push back Hezbollah fighters from the border. A fight to hold territory threatens a longer, even more destructive and destabilizing war – recalling Israel’s 1982-2000 occupation of southern Lebanon.The fear is that a new war could be even worse than the one in 2006, which was traumatic enough for both sides to serve as a deterrent ever since.
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