The variant is likely to stretch hospital systems in countries if no restrictions are put in place to slow it, according to two new studies
in several countries, including Britain, Denmark, Norway and parts of southern Africa. A spread this rapid leaves no doubt that Omicron will soon replace Delta, the variant that currently causes most covid cases globally. Scientists from Imperial College in London explained what this means for the world in a pair of studies published on December 16th.
That Omicron can spread so fast in a country such as Britain, where almost 70% of the population is vaccinated and millions have had covid, is largely because of its astounding ability to evade immunity from both vaccines and previous infections. The researchers found that in Britain a two-dose course of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine was, at most, 20% effective against infection by Omicron.
All told, the level of immunity of a country’s population will ebb and flow over time. More jabs and infections will push it up. Waning protection, including that from boosters, will push it down. If the antibody levels from boosters decay at the same or half the rate of the primary course of vaccination, the researchers reckon that after 60 days boosters may be 80-86% effective against severe covid in an Omicron wave. That is encouragingly high but lower than the 97% efficacy for Delta.
Using boosters wisely, however, can save lives and alleviate pressure on hospitals. The models predict what the effect might be in three types of countries. In countries with widespread infections in the past and where most people have already received a two-dose vaccination course , boosters given to people over the age of 60 could cut by 25% the total number of covid deaths occurring in 2021-2022 compared with a scenario without boosters.
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