What the early 1980s implies for American unemployment today

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What the early 1980s implies for American unemployment today
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Although the unemployment rate has fallen, 20m workers remain out of a job because of the coronavirus pandemic

ALTHOUGH AMERICA’S unemployment rate shocked almost everyone by falling in May, 20m workers remain out of a job because of the coronavirus pandemic. The official unemployment rate is 13.3%, though that rises to about 16% if everyone who was employed but absent from work because of the pandemic is correctly accounted for. Many commentators worry that a large chunk of the unemployed will have no job to go back to, even as lockdowns ease and stimulus payments land in bank accounts.

The question matters because it affects the strength of the recovery. You can return to an old job right away, but finding a new one usually takes time. People resuming their old jobs are also likely to be more productive, because they know the ropes, which allows them to earn higher wages, at least at first.

The experience of the early 1980s could be a useful guide to the recovery from the pandemic. That recession too was the result of a policy that sacrificed short-term economic growth in order to defeat an enemy. If bosses think that government policies that restrain activity are temporary, reckon analysts at Goldman Sachs, a bank, they may decide to minimise permanent lay-offs, which are disruptive for their businesses.

As Mr Yang suggested on the podcast, workers may be mistaken in their belief that their plight is temporary. Yet the evidence suggests some are already being called back. The rise in employment in May of 2.5m—the largest month-on-month increase ever, by far—is unlikely to have been the result of lots of workers finding new positions. Job search takes time, after all.

Recovery is still a long way off. The unemployment rate is well above the peak reached in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Employment for some groups, such as ethnic minorities, has risen by less than that for others. And it seems a fair bet that the pandemic will destroy many jobs. As some lockdowns came to an end, employment in food services and drinking establishments accounted for more than half the overall rise in May.

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