What can state polls can tell us about the national race? NateSilver538 breaks it down:
*Based on FiveThirtyEight polling averages as of 4:10 p.m. Eastern on Sept. 23. States are included only if they have at least five total polls or polls from at least three pollsters. Sorted from reddest to bluest.
As of late Wednesday afternoon, for example, Biden led by 6.8 percentage points in our polling average in. It’s clearly good news for Biden that he’s leading in Wisconsin, but what it implies about the national race depends on what year you’re comparing it with. In 2016, for instance, Wisconsin was about 2.9 points more Republican than the nation, so having a 6.8-point lead there would imply that Biden had a huge 9.7-point lead nationally. But in 2012, Wisconsin was 3.
Indeed, you can see in the chart where Biden is running especially well or comparatively poorly relative to how the state usually votes. The fact that Biden is nearly tied with Trump in Texas is extremely impressive for Biden, for example. But it’s not a great sign for him that his lead in Florida is so narrow.
However, averaging each state’s implied national margin and weighting it based on each state’s turnout puts Biden ahead by 8.1 points nationally if you’re using 2016 as a baseline, or 7.2 points if you’re using 2012 instead. In this case, that’s pretty similar to his current 7.3-point lead in national polls.
But what about polls in deeply red states and deeply blue states? Those states may not create much Electoral College suspense, but they do count toward the popular vote. First, Biden’s national margin in red states that have a sufficientBiden’s polling lead or deficit in traditionally Republican states, and what that means for his national margin, based on 2016 and 2012 results
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