Market Analysis by covering: Gold Spot US Dollar, Silver Spot US Dollar, S&P 500, Gold Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
This is when gold is expected to hit $10,000, according to YardeniBond market ratios and wage data suggest price pressures aren’t accelerating just yet. Jobs trends and technical Treasury yield moves may ultimately first determine whether real inflation reawakens.
It’s Fed Week on Wall Street, the first of 2026. The FOMC meets as precious metals soar to record highs and global portfolio managers are as bullish as ever. On Monday,the true driver of higher consumer prices. Labor costs and shelter are what really matter, and both of those impactful macro variables are cooling their heels as official government data and private-sector gauges point to declining wage growth.So why does all this matter for technicians and chart watchers? Getting the macro story right makes intermarket analysis more effective. On that note, one niche ETF caught my attention over the weekend: the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF . Based on the name alone, you might assume this is pure play on inflation expectations, but that’s far from the case. With roughly 36% allocated to global Energy stocks and 27% to Materials, INFL is really a resource-heavy ETF. And, to be clear, it’s been up all but one session so far this year and, with a clean breakout, is a powerhouse momentum idea. Once again, though, it’s easy to conflate bull markets in commodities with imminent inflation.Here’s the Better Barometer—And It’s Technical To better assess the inflationary backdrop, we can harness StockCharts’ ratio charts. I prefer to simply compare the iShares TIPS Bond ETF ? The job situation.nonfarm payrolls report revealed that the jobless rate dipped 0.16 percentage points to 4.375%. Wage growth also came in a tad hot, rising to a 3.8% year-over-year rate. Still reeling from data irregularities stemming from the October–November government shutdown , economists weigh alternative wage data sources, which are broadly benign. Maybe the most respected view of labor costs is theBut if a trend develops in which unemployment falls and average hourly earnings tick up, then we could have a real inflationary scare . Unemployment Rate & S&P 500 Continue Tracking, but a Divergence May be Developing. Chart source: StockCharts.com.How does all this show up in price action and intermarket trends? Keep an eye on the bond market and its infamous vigilantes. Here, we are back to the scene of the crime, as we technicians are wont to say. The 4.20% mark was key resistance from September 2025 through the first half of this month. A clean breakout amid the USA-for-Greenland chatter and Japan’s rate melt-up last Tuesday suggested a new sustained uptrend. That didn’t happen. The benchmark yield said hello to 4.31%, but then came back down to just about fill the January 20 gap. If yields fail to hold 4.20%, it would suggest a false breakdown, underscoring that inflation was the previous cycle’s fear factor. A jump through 4.31%, though, would change the macro chessboard.rather than cutting them. And that opens a whole other can of economic worms, with President Trump resolute in seeing short-term rates slashed ahead of the midterm elections. Fasten your seatbelts and grab your political popcorn in the latter scenario.Rather than guessing and playing 4-D chess, simply monitor the provided charts. Bookmark them. Revisit them each weekend .There’s more to consumer price trends, however — namely, wage growth trends and real-time shelter costs, as both are moderating and not accelerating. The Fed will likely be on hold this week and, no matter what word salad they conjure up, price action and chart breakouts and breakdowns are your best friends.This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. 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