The aim is to strengthen the credibility of the West’s promise to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, and thereby sap Russia’s hope that waging a long war could turn the tables in its disastrous invasion
prepares for its summit in Vilnius on July 11th and 12th, Western leaders are aiming to give Ukraine lasting “security guarantees”. What might they be and will they make a difference?and its promise of mutual defence: Article 5 of the organisation’s founding treaty holds that an attack on one member is an attack on all. But America, in particular, is worried that admitting Ukraine while it is at war would, in effect, meancountries having to fight against Russia.
An early version of the guarantees was published last year in the “Kyiv Security Compact”, a proposal by Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former secretary-general of, and Andriy Yermak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky. It set out, among other things, a “multi-decade effort of sustained investment in Ukraine’s defence industrial base, scalable weapons transfers and intelligence support from allies, intensive training missions and joint exercises under the European Union andflags.
Eric Ciaramella, who has worked on Ukraine policy at the White House under both Democratic and Republican administrations, proposes more neutral words such as “arrangements” or “commitments” in a recent paper for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an American think-tank. He believes that the Kyiv Security Compact should be made more binding, not least through “strong political and legal codification”.
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