As prime minister, Rishi Sunak would be unlikely to act foolishly, but the job is inherently political. Liz Truss would be riskier, but more likely to succeed. It looks as if the Tories have opted to be risk-takers. They may be proved right
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThis is a cause for worry. After 12 years of Conservative-led government, Britain is suffering from a bout of inflation and a chronic. At the same time, politics has become unstable as old alignments have broken down. One or more of these phenomena is roiling most of the rich world. It is hard to think of a country that has such a severe case of all three.
The bad news is that the next prime minister is walking into a tempest. Inflation is expected to pass 13%, worse than any other country in the7. Real wages next year are forecast to fall more rapidly than they have in decades. The typical annual household energy bill may reach £4,300 in January, triple what it was in 2021. Strikes are spreading, across the railways, into the courts, the ports, logistics and local councils.
The hope is that events will not stop the next prime minister getting to Britain’s second, deeper problem—its long-term economic weakness. To their credit, both candidates have made this the heart of their campaign. Both embrace supply-side reform. Mr Sunak’s plans are more coherent. Rather than cutting overall corporate taxes, which does little to boost investment or growth, he would target relief on capital spending and. He is more likely to preserve fiscal space for an emergency, such as another pandemic, and for the demands of climate change and an ageing population. He is less likely to ruin relations with the European Union which, by a fact of geography, is and will remain Britain’s biggest trading partner.
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