Artificially controlling the climate is controversial. But if efforts to cut emissions stall, it may be the only solution
climate deal commits its signatories to cuts in climate-changing greenhouse-gas emissions over the coming decades. But even if countries stick to their promises , that may not be enough to avert catastrophe. Imagine that by 2030 global temperatures are still creeping up, and sea levels are tens of centimetres higher—significantly worsening the impact of storm surges that push seawater over low-lying areas and corrode coastal infrastructures.
The fastest way to do this would be to build a fleet of specialised planes. An analysis published in 2018 by Wake Smith, at Yale University, and Gernot Wagner, at New York University, maps out how to do it. The planes need to fly at altitudes of 20km or higher, ruling out the possibility of using existing commercial aircraft for the purpose.
To avoid the disastrous geopolitical fallout of such a scenario, the coalition would therefore seek to deploy a global sunshade that would offer equal or comparable cooling to all regions. Some studies suggest that this may be possible, though research is still very much in its early days. Simone Tilmes at theat 15° and 30° north and south of the equator would produce a reasonably uniform global cooling.
It is difficult to predict what the international response to a unilateral American sunshade programme would be. It would, of course, depend on how the sunshade was deployed and how the climate responded. America, the Soviet Union, Britain, France and China were all rebuked for carrying out atmospheric nuclear testing in the 20th century, but suffered little actual diplomatic cost. Unilateral geoengineering might provoke condemnation, but not war.
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