What would Hong Kong look like if China sends in paramilitary forces to quell the protests? “I think bloodshed would be inevitable,” one analyst says.
Hu Xijin, editor of the Communist Party-owned Chinese daily Global Times, says the troop movements in southern China are a “clear warning” to protesters and that the chances of Chinese intervention are rising.
A large-scale Chinese paramilitary operation to crush protests would risk high civilian casualties in an echo of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre 30 years ago when the People’s Liberation Army fired on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing and rolled over them with tanks.requests it — and this would not be popular with Hong Kongers, who are deeply protective of their rights.
“What’s becoming increasingly clear in the last weeks and months is the Hong Kong government has extremely little autonomy when it comes to the major issues,” said Bland. “That’s been exposed now. Even if the protests die down, people understand now this is a very different Hong Kong.” “Beijing doesn’t want to see Tiananmen-style bloodshed,” Ni said. “I don’t think it’s inevitable. The situation on the ground is very fluid.”
What would Hong Kong look like if China made good on the threat implied in the massed troops on Hong Kong’s border?“I think bloodshed would be inevitable,” Ni said. “Almost inevitably you’d have confrontation between Hong Kongers and the People’s Armed Police. So you’d have standoffs, you’d have further protests. You would be seen as an occupying force by Hong Kong’s population, creating the seeds for future conflict, even if the current protests are suppressed.
Even without intervention, analysts predict that tensions and unrest could continue for years with focus points for anger such as trials of protesters or elections.
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