When pioneers in the field of artificial intelligence start to worry about their creations, we should pay attention. But do people really have reason to fear?
, which asked this question of the expert community: “After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first super-intelligent oracle?”It may not be about how long it will take to get from AGI to SMI. That computer loop, known as “recursive self-improvement”, might take care of that step quite rapidly, in no time at all compared to the 75 years it took AI researchers to come up with ChatGPT.
But sparks – as anyone who has ever tried to use an empty cigarette lighter knows – don’t always burst into flames. “Actually, we’d love it if they’d use it less because we don’t have enough GPUs,” he told Congress, referring to the graphics processing units that were once mainly used by computer gamers, but then found a use, and now are used by the AI industry on a vast scale to train AI models.
“I now predict five to 20 years but without much confidence. We live in very uncertain times. It’s possible that I am totally wrong about digital intelligence overtaking us. Nobody really knows which is why we should worry now,” he tweeted in May. “It’s a cultural fear that we’ve had since the beginning of time. Well, certainly since the beginning of machines,” she says.“And we have a history of mobilising these kind of anxieties when technologies get to scale and propose to change our ideas of time and place and social relationships.”
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