Researchers suggest physicians miscalculate probabilities in series of diagnostic tests and these errors could endanger lives.
shows that physicians also commit the conjunction fallacy, but these medical errors could cost lives.
In one survey, they asked the participants to consider a pregnant patient whose fetus presents its brow during labor. The physicians estimated the probability that the baby would shift into a deliverable presentation and they could deliver the baby once there, as well as the probabilities for each individual scenario.
They found that across their 215 participants, 78.1 percent fell for the conjunction fallacy. They predicted that the joint probabilities were greater than at least one of the individual ones. The researchers say that overestimating joint probabilities could endanger patients. For example, physicians use a “threshold probability” to decide whether a pregnant patient will successfully deliver a child or if they need medical intervention like a C-section. If they overestimate the probability that they can deliver the baby safely, then mothers and fetuses who are at-risk could face catastrophic consequences.
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