The United States is heading toward a government shutdown this weekend with no foreseeable way out of a deadlock in Congress over hardline Republican calls for deep spending cuts.
The new US fiscal year begins on October 1, but sharp disagreements in the Republican Party over the scale of federal debt has prevented passage of the bills needed to keep the government funded and open.
The American Federation of Government Employees union estimates a full shutdown would mean almost 1.8 million federal workers would not be paid for the duration. However, many services would likely be affected, including new applications for Social Security and Medicare, food and environmental site inspections, and national parks.Goldman Sachs economists have estimated that a shutdown would impact economic growth in the fourth quarter by 0.2 percentage points for every week it continues.
Assuming the shutdown ends before the year is out, Goldman estimates growth will increase early next year by the same amount it declined in the fourth quarter, while Oxford Economics researchers expect half of the loss to be made up. The shutdown appeared to have an impact on Wall Street, with major stock indexes losing steam as the deadline approached.Economists worry that a shutdown would also pause the publication of federal government data.
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