A study published Monday concluded that melting ice in Greenland caused by climate change could cause the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to collapse as soon as 2025, ushering in dramatic consequences for the planet.
a"flood of freshwater spilled into the Atlantic, halting the AMOC and plunging much of the Northern Hemisphere — especially Europe — into deep cold" that lasted 1,000 years.Previous estimates about when a possible collapse of the current might occur have been much less dire. In 2019, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changewould weaken in this century, but that total collapse within the next 300 years was only likely under the worst-case scenarios.
Some scientists say it is premature to revise that assessment. They argue that there are too many different factors affecting the current to project exactly if and when it will collapse. "We know that there is a possibility that AMOC could stop what it's doing now at some point, but it's really hard to have certainty about that," Penny Holliday, head of the Marine Physics and Ocean Climate group at the National Oceanography Centre, a British research institute,The fact that the study used past ocean surface temperatures as a proxy for AMOC strength — since actual data on the AMOC itself only goes back to 2004 — is a limitation, according to some.
The points of consensus among researchers are that imminent AMOC collapse is a very disturbing possibility and further study is needed. "There is still large uncertainty where the AMOC tipping point is, but the new study adds to the evidence that it is much closer than we thought," Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor of physics of the oceans at the University of Potsdam in Germany,"Although the study probably overstates odds this century, uncertainty is high & the potential consequences of an AMOC disruption are extremely high,"However, Peter Ditlevsen, a professor of climate physics at the University of...
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