Keir Starmer cannot count on a Labour landslide based on his party’s by-election victory in West Lancashire, pollsters have said 🔴 janemerrick23
Polling experts also say Labour will find it difficult to win a substantial majority without securing more support in Scotland, where they have trailed the SNP for years. This means the party has to over-perform in English seats for Sir Keir to become prime minister.
Mr English of YouGov said Labour would typically need a uniform national swing of around 13 per cent to secure an overall majority, but added: “It’s impossible to tell right now what the ‘magic number’ would be for Labour to get a majority of one, but you basically have to ask yourself ‘what sort of national swing do I think would be needed for Labour to take Rugby’, and that’s your answer. For what it’s worth, I reckon that’s about 9-10 points.
Mr Hopkins of Savanta said: “On pure UNS you’re looking at just over 100 seats changing hands, which would put Labour on about 300, so short of a majority. But this, ultimately, is the problem with UNS, and particularly extrapolating UNS from a by-election with low-turnout in a safe seat. “There were more than 30,000 more votes cast in West Lancashire in 2019 than yesterday, and therefore that places a cap or ceiling on how well Labour can do here – there’s 30,000 extra voters that they could try and win over at a general election, given that we know turnout is likely to be considerably higher. Essentially, low turnout disadvantages the party who’s doing much better than they were last time out.
“Mathematically, for the Conservatives, it’s almost the opposite. They’re doing much worse nationally than last time, down almost 20 points from their national UK vote share in 2019 based on recent polling, but they can’t end up with a negative percentage, so the worst-case scenario is almost mitigated by the fact they didn’t do great here in 2019 anyway.”
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