Markets were not spooked by Halloween as equities climbed significantly higher while rates and the index of fear (the VIX) declined during the week.
The market moves were driven by weaker US data, dovish market perceptions of the Fed, and a better outlook for the US treasury as it now expects to slow the pace of longer-term bonds issuance. The Bank of Japan used Halloween to “trick or tweak” and tweaked its yield curve yield curve control policy by redefining the 1% cap on 10-year JGB yields as a reference rather than a rigid bound. This was likely the last, step ahead of dismantling the YCC altogether.
The recent strong labour market data that has lifted inflation expectations provided Powell an option to deliver a more hawkish message, but he did not consider it necessary and said that inflation expectations remain “in a good place”. In the euro area, inflation and GDP data corroborated the ‘soft-landing’ narrative. Headline inflation fell significantly again to 2.9% y/y from 4.3% and core inflation ticked down to 4.2% y/y from 4.5%.
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