United States: Riding the Wave The Consumer Price Index ended the year at 2.9% year-over-year, which is a minor improvement from its 3.1% rate in January 2024 and points to stalled progress on the road back to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
Summary United States:Riding the Wave The Consumer Price Index ended the year at 2.9% year-over-year, which is a minor improvement from its 3.1% rate in January 2024 and points to stalled progress on the road back to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. We now look for only two 25 bps rate cuts in the second half of 2025 and expect the FOMC to hold at a target range of 3.75%-4.00% through 2026.
tariffs weighing on China's export sector and domestic growth unlikely to be sustained unless the government announces large-scale fiscal stimulus. Next week: Canada CPI , Bank of Japan Policy Rate , Eurozone PMIs Interest Rate Watch:FOMC Likely to Enter an Extended Pause in Its Recent Easing Cycle We share the widely-held expectation that the FOMC will maintain its current target range of 4.25%-4.50% for the federal funds rate at its upcoming meeting on January 29.
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