Week Ahead: Trade War Risks Are Back—and Markets Are Pricing Them In

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Week Ahead: Trade War Risks Are Back—and Markets Are Pricing Them In
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Asian stocks fell, and Nasdaq/ S&P 500 futures dropped 1% as renewed trade-war fears hit risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%, with most sectors lower, while futures pointed to further declines for US and European equities after recent steep losses.

Citigroup cut European equities to neutral, citing escalating US‑EU tensions and tariff uncertainty weighing on earnings, while upgrading Japan to overweight and favoring emerging markets for better risk‑reward. Trump’s push to take control of Greenland, with threats of new tariffs on Europe, heightened market uncertainty. The dollar stayed under pressure, 10-year U.S. yields hit a 4‑month high near 4.27%, and investors moved into safe havens like the Swiss franc and gold. Gold hit a record high of $4,701.23/oz, up over 70% since Trump’s second term began, while silver eased after briefly reaching an all-time high of $94.72/oz. Copper declined along with most base metals as investors assessed the risk of demand destruction in top consumer China following record-high prices. Oil was steady as traders weighed fallout from the US push to take control of Greenland and looming US‑EU trade tensions ahead of Trump’s Davos speech, with expectations of a large crude surplus and escalating tariff risks pointing to further downside for prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will attend Wednesday’s Supreme Court hearing on President Trump’s attempted dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook, a case that will shape the president’s power to fire Fed officials and the central bank’s independence in setting interest rates.The slide came after Trump’s weekend announcement that the US will levy broad tariffs on imports from eight NATO countries unless they agree to talks on a “complete and total purchase of Greenland.” In response, European officials have floated up to $108 billion in retaliatory tariffs, with potential fallout estimated at around $8 trillion. The tariff clash is unfolding against a critical legal backdrop, with the Supreme Court potentially ruling as soon as this week on whether Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs is constitutional. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday he sees it as “very unlikely” that the court will overturn what he called the president’s signature economic policy.Trump’s Davos speech on Wednesday is expected to center on housing affordability, with proposals such as banning large institutional homebuyers and directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy more mortgage bonds to lower borrowing costs.inflation data for October and November will be released, giving the Fed a key reading on price pressures before next week’s policy meeting, where officials remain split on further Also, this week, the US Supreme Court will hear arguments in Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s challenge to President Trump’s attempt to remove her.reports Q4 results late Tuesday, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $0.55 on revenue of $11.97 billion , helped by the final season of “Stranger Things” and other hit content. The stock has weakened this year amid its planned $72 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, facing antitrust hurdles and a competing offer from Paramount Skydance, and has remained in a downtrend since July.reports Q4 on Tuesday after a 24% gain in 2025. Wall Street sees only single-digit sales and EPS growth for 2026. JPMorgan cut the stock to neutral Friday but kept a $182 target . Shares sit in a seven-week flat base.reports Tuesday, with estimates pointing to a third straight earnings decline and roughly 3% sales growth. Goldman Sachs reiterated a buy on Jan. 13 and raised its target to $129 . Alaska Air reports Friday.reports Tuesday. Street forecasts call for 17% EPS growth and 15% revenue growth, below its recent four-quarter EPS pace of 27%.posts full-year results Wednesday. Analysts look for revenue up 22% and earnings up 50%. The stock remains in a buy zone after a late-December breakout. report Q4 results early Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Analysts expect J&J earnings up 22% on 7% sales growth, with focus on key drugs like Stelara and Darzalex. Abbott is in focus for its planned Exact Sciences acquisition, with forecasts calling for 12% EPS growth and an 8% revenue increase.reports Q4 on Thursday, with FactSet forecasting about 2% EPS growth on a 13% revenue gain after an 85% stock rally in 2025. Results are being driven by strong aftermarket demand amid prior Boeing/Airbus delivery delays, a large engine backlog, and a recent GEnx win with Delta’s 787 order. Shares sit in a flat-base buy zone following a late-December breakout. reports Q4 Thursday, followed by Alcoa , with recent spikes in copper, aluminum and other metals putting supply and capital allocation in focus, per BMO. Analysts see FCX EPS down 8% and revenue down 7%, reflecting the Grasberg mine tragedy, while Alcoa is expected to post an 11% earnings decline and 6% sales drop amid higher aluminum tariffs from Canada. Both stocks have pulled back from recent highs but remain extended beyond buy zones.will report earnings after Thursday’s U.S. close as it races to cut costs and stabilize its finances amid tougher competition in PC and server CPUs and limited progress in AI chips. The company got a major boost last year when Nvidia, SoftBank and the U.S. government made sizable investments, including Nvidia’s $5 billion stake in December. Earlier this month, Intel unveiled a new AI laptop chip built on its next‑gen manufacturing process, aiming to ease investor concerns over its product roadmap.Price has been range-bound between 49,670 and 48,790 since early this year. While this ceiling holds, trading is likely to stay range-bound between 25,900 and 25,300, with extra support near 24,650.The index is currently trading within a 6,880–6,985 range. Sideways trade within this band is likely this week as long as 6,880 continues to cap downside pressure.The US weekly market probability map for Jan 19 –23, 2026, suggests a Shorter week ahead with a mixed bias!: AI-managed stock picks every month, with several picks that have already taken off in November and in the long term.Investing.com’s AI tool provides real-time market insights, advanced chart analysis, and personalized trading data to help traders make quick, data-driven decisions.: This feature aggregates 17 institutional-grade valuation models to cut through the noise and show you which stocks are overhyped, undervalued, or fairly priced.From debt ratios and profitability to analyst earnings revisions, you’ll have everything professional investors use to analyze stocks in one clean dashboard.Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. 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