'We’ve built a house of cards [with medical supply chains], and I think this is one of the key reasons that the smart folks on Wall Street are freaking out. We’re seeing this whole house of cards tumble with the epidemic.'
Inside a triage tent at St. Barnabas hospital in the Bronx on March 20. Photo: Misha Friedman/Getty Images In 1994, Laurie Garrett published The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance. Two years later, she won a Pulitzer Prize for her reporting in Newsday on the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, then Zaire.
If we can get this antibody test mass-produced — and I know they’re working on it right now — and put it into commercialization really quickly, this could be a game-changer for the whole pandemic. One of the things we would love to know right now is how many people who have had pneumonia since January were actually COVID cases? Having answers to that question would make a difference on a policy level.
However, if you think there’s a likely pandemic coming down the road that’s going to hit America, couldn’t you have created national stockpiles, or anticipated the need for domestic production? We have become what’s called an adjusted-time-delivery economy. Whether it’s a quart of milk or a Mercedes-Benz, in the United States, we want to do everything we can to avoid the cost of inventory and warehousing.
So that makes me worried that a year from now, when we finally have something that looks promising and we’re ready to go into large clinical trials, there may be enough strains that it has to be treated like the annual flu vaccine, where you actually get five or six viral vaccines at once because there’s so many different strains of flu out there. I’m not at all optimistic that we’re going to have a vaccine in a year or even a year and a half.
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