It is expected that global warming will exceed the threshold established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, though it is uncertain to what extent this will occur. According to new research from scientists at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the University of Maryland, a
, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, current climate pledges are insufficient to achieve the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, and it is likely that global warming will surpass the 1.5 degreeThe research suggests that the only way to minimize the extent of this overshoot is for countries to adopt more ambitious climate pledges and decarbonize their economies at a faster pace. This will help to reduce the amount of time that the planet spends in a warmer state.
Every second shaved off the overshoot translates to less time courting the most harmful consequences of global warming, from extreme weather to rising sea levels. Forgoing or delaying more ambitious goals could lead to “irreversible and adverse consequences for human and natural systems,” said lead author Gokul Iyer, a scientist alongside McJeon at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland.
“The 2021 pledges don’t add up to anywhere near 1.5 degrees—we are forced to focus on the overshoot,” said PNNL scientist Yang Ou, who co-led the study. “Here, we’re trying to provide scientific support to help answer the question: What type of ratcheting mechanism would get us back down and below 1.5 degrees? That’s the motivation behind this paper.
Taking the most ambitious path outlined, however, could bring net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2057. Such a path, the authors write, is marked by “rapid transformations throughout the global energy system” and the scaling up of “low-carbon technologies like renewables, nuclear energy, as well as carbon capture and storage.”
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