With Iran's missile barrage against Israel marking yet another escalation, here are some possible outcomes - from all-out war to an improbable Trump-brokered peace
With Iran's missile barrage against Israel marking yet another escalation, here are some possible outcomes - from all-out war to an improbable Trump-brokered peace, amid intensifying operations by Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, appear to be sobering waymarks on a journey towards an enduring state of escalating conflict in the Middle East.
At the same time, the prospect of Israel capitalising on its weakening of Hezbollah could yet provoke the group to unleash what remains of a fearsome arsenal, including precision ballistic missiles, built up in the last two decades – not least because further Israeli success in aAccording to US estimates, Hezbollah had until last month amassed about 150,000 missiles and rockets, the majority supplied by Iran.
From an Israeli perspective, the result is what Mr Savill describes as a “generational opportunity to deal a setback to Iranian regional influence”. At the same time, the evidence that Israel and its allies – in the shape of America and the UK – have once more been successful in intercepting Tehran’s projectiles, puts Iran at risk of its military strength being shown to be ineffective – and thereby incentivising it to respond to any further escalation with its own increased ferocity.
For all that it is currently weakened, Hezbollah is likely to rebuild. In the meantime, Tehran may yet deepen its relationship with the Houthis by integrating the Yemeni rebels more closely with the extra-territorial activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and providing the grouping with more advanced weapons to launch at Israel and use against shipping in the Red Sea.
Commentators have noted that the ruling elites in several key Middle Eastern states, among them Saudi Arabia, are either quietly backing him or maintaining a studious silence in the expectation that a second Trump administration may be more amenable to the priorities of their regimes. Notwithstanding the obvious caveat that the outcome of Mr Trump’s race for the White House against his Democrat rival Kamala Harris remains to be seen, there is a sense that for a peace to be possible it is likely to require a shift in approach.
Others suggest that Mr Trump’s preference for a highly transactional foreign policy, in which a blind eye is likely to be cast upon the authoritarian instincts of key brokers such as Saudi Arabia, could be a vehicle for exploring whether Israel’s security needs can be reconciled with the cessation of combat in Gaza and progress on the question of a Palestinian state, according to one diplomatic source.
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