Wall Street Week Ahead: Bond investors look for Fed to justify steepening yield curve

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Wall Street Week Ahead: Bond investors look for Fed to justify steepening yield curve
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Expectations that the global economy has dodged the worst-case coronavirus pandemic scenarios have led to a dramatic sell-off in U.S. government bonds from their record highs, pushing the yield curve to its steepest level since March.

Investors will get a chance next week to see whether the U.S. Federal Reserve agrees with their optimism. The U.S. central bank’s two-day meeting, ending on Wednesday, will be the first since April when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy could feel the weight of the economic shutdown for more than a year.

While the Fed could introduce additional bond-buying programs known as quantitative easing or yield-curve control measures to target short-term rates, fund managers say they expect yields will need to rise significantly to justify any intervention in the bulk of the curve. Instead, they are watching for hints that the central bank believes the worst part of the coronavirus crisis has passed.

“The Fed will be OK with a slow creep higher, particularly with a backdrop of a recovery, but if it moves too much and destabilizes the recovery, there’s a reason for concern,” he said. The manufacturing ISM index rose to 43.1 in May from 41.5 in April, while weekly jobless claims fell to 1.877 million from 2.126 million the week before.

FILE PHOTO: Pedestrians walk past the New York Stock Exchange as the building opens for the first time since March while the outbreak of the coronavirus disease continues in the Manhattan borough of New York, U.S., May 26, 2020. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

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