Wall Street analysts increasingly bullish on Nio stock after a 50% YTD drop
Both Jefferies and Citi Research have expressed confidence in Nio’s ability to rebound, pointing to a series of upcoming catalysts that could drive a recovery in its stock price.
Analysts at Jefferies view this launch as a significant near-term catalyst, “We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% probability for the scenario,” the analysts said. Additionally, Citi expects a 1% to 2% quarter-on-quarter increase in blended average selling prices , driven by a decline in incentives, an improved product mix, and scale efficiencies.
Similarly, Jefferies uses a probability-weighted valuation methodology, factoring in Nio’s expected volume growth and long-term potential. Jefferies assigns 25%/50%/25% probabilities to its bull, base, and bear case scenarios, with the base case expecting net profit break-even by 2028. While the outlook for Nio is optimistic, both Jefferies and Citi outline several risks that could affect the company’s performance.
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