Oil prices are recovering faster than anyone expected. 4 Wall Street banks explain what that means for the energy economy — and share the stocks poised to benefit from the recovery.
"The balance between supply and demand continues to tighten, after rebalancing earlier than expected," Morgan Stanley analysts led by Martijn Rats said in a note on Monday. "From here, demand is set to improve as economies re-open." Gregory Shamus/Getty ImagesTo understand the near-term future of oil markets, it can be helpful to look to China, where the coronavirus hit first.
"Demand is unlikely to return fully to pre-COVID-19 levels until the end of 2021, in our view," Rats said. That tracks with the current price of US crude for delivery 12 months from now, which is selling for about $41 a barrel, per Morgan Stanley. That's why, in May, US and Canadian producers cut oil production by as much as 2.5 million barrels per day , Bank of America analysts said in a note published in late May. EOG Resources, for example, "plans to slowly begin reversing curtailments" next month, amounting to 125,000 bpd, while WPX energy has started bringing back 45,000 bpd, Morgan Stanley said.
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