Investors are bracing for the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year, with market participants hungry to learn how quickly the central bank plans to finish unwinding its bond-buying program and pick up signs of when it may start to raise rates in 2022.
There is potential for renewed volatility, however, if the Fed takes a more hawkish than expected view on rolling back the easy money policies that have helped stocks more than double from their March 2020 lows, including a rapid reduction in bond buying that clears the way for the central bank to raise rates sooner.Markets could also be roiled if the Fed signals greater worry about inflation, which Powell said can no longer be described as "transitory.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has climbed about 15 basis points from the start of the month to 1.49%, but is below the 1.776% it reached in March. The Fed last month began "tapering" its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities at a pace that would have put it on track to complete the wind-down by mid-2022. Following Powell's comments, investors now believe the Fed could quicken the pace of reductions that will end the bond-buying by March, which could allow the central bank to potentially start raising rates sooner.Bets on earlier rate increases have also grown.
One possible scenario outlined by UBS Global Wealth Management in a report sees the virus complicating supply-chain issues that have helped stoke inflation in recent months, bringing concerns the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy faster. The bank’s base case scenario, however, assumes the Omicron variant will not derail the recovery.
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