Wagner Uprising Highlights China’s Risks With Russia

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Wagner Uprising Highlights China’s Risks With Russia
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China views Russia as a needed partner in challenging the global order dominated by the U.S. But Putin’s appetite for risk forced Beijing to defend its bond with Russia in the face of Western pressure. Wagner uprising highlights China’s risks with Russia:

A Chinese naval ship near Dongju Island, Taiwan, April 10, 2023.

“It makes China realize that the Putin government’s internal politics are actually quite fragile,” said Xiao Bin, a researcher for the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “The fragility existed before, but it has increased ever since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.”

More extremely, a souring relationship between Beijing and Moscow could require China to again redeploy troops at the border with Russia, at the expense of other areas, said John Culver, a former U.S. intelligence analyst on China. Beijing may consider accelerating efforts to extract more concessions from Russia. At the top of China’s list could be access to more Russian technology and more favorable terms for the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would help redirect Russian gas supplies that historically have gone to Europe toward China instead.

Some see the Wagner rebellion as the latest sign that China’s relationship with Russia is increasingly similar to its relationship with North Korea, a country that is notoriously erratic, and that exploits its volatile behavior to try to press China for more support in exchange for backing down.

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