Wage Growth Slows Even as Unemployment Ticks Back Down to 3.5 Percent

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Wage Growth Slows Even as Unemployment Ticks Back Down to 3.5 Percent
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Despite unemployment being at its lowest level in the last 50 years, wage growth was just 0.3% in September.

The September employment report showed the labor market remains strong, however, wage growth appears to be moderating. The report showed a gain of 263,000 jobs, which is in line with most predictions. The unemployment rate edged back down to 3.5 percent, its lowest level in the last half-century.

However, this is down from a 6.1 percent pace at the start of the year. Wage growth is clearly slowing rather than increasing as Beveridge Curve models would predict given vacancy rates.The Black unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent in September, reversing recent rises and tying for the low point in the recovery. The unemployment rate for Black teens fell to 12.7 percent, the second lowest ever, and lower than any pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate for Hispanics fell to 3.

Manufacturing added 22,000 jobs in September. Employment is now almost 100,000 above the pre-pandemic level. It would be almost 120,000 higher with the benchmark revisions.

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