College football odds, picks and prediction for Virginia Cavaliers vs Louisville Cardinals. Week 11 betting free pick and game analysis.
After taking care of Virginia Tech last week, the Louisville Cardinals are massive favorites to dispatch of Virginia this week. Our college football picks agree the Cards are the play, but we'll look to bank on them starting fast vs. the Cavaliers.The Louisville Cardinals will look to continue their unexpected potential run to the ACC championship game when they host the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday night.
The Cavaliers’ brief mid-season revival which included a big upset win over North Carolina, has come and gone. Virginia has lost two in a row and is 2-7 for the season. A big part of the reason for that is that the Cavs are getting killed by opposing rushing attacks. Virginia is surrendering 4.8 yards per carry and ranks 115th in opponent rushing yards per game, and overall, the team ranks 120th in defensive success rate.
But the biggest difference that will help Louisville avoid the same fate as North Carolina is its defense. This is a really strong unit that has allowed just three points over its last two games. The Cards rank 17th in opponent yards per play and 29th in defensive success rate. The Cardinals have held 14-3 and 17-0 leads at the half in each of their last two games and the last time they were big home favorites like this was against Boston College on Sept. 23 and they got out to a 28-0 lead. I’m expecting more of the same here and taking Louisville on the first-half spread.As per usual, our same-game parlay starts off with my best bet which for this ACC matchup is Louisville to cover the 10.5-point first-half spread.
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