Republicans are already attacking Democrats ahead of Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's Ethics Committee trial.
are celebrating stunning wins in Sunshine State special legislative elections this week. But the party faces a looming headache in the upcoming ethics trial of Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick in the The scandal risks undermining Democrats’ anti-corruption message, Adam Cayton, professor of political science at the University of West Florida, toldTwo special elections on Tuesday night gave Democrats victories in Florida, a state that has become increasingly difficult for the party over the past decade.
to represent Florida’s 87th House District, a seat that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar‑a‑Lago resort in Palm Beach County. She flipped a Republican-held district that Trump carried by double digits in the 2024 presidential election. Meanwhile, Democrat Brian Nathan, a union organizer and Navy veteran, prevailed in Senate District 14, a seat that has been vacant since Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appointed its former incumbent Jay Collins to serve as his lieutenant governor.“This victory reiterates an undeniable trend in Florida: with year round organizing and infrastructure investment, Democrats can run and win anywhere–including Donald Trump’s backyard. Floridians are tired of the chaos, corruption, and sky high prices on everything from groceries, to gas, and healthcare. They are voting for trusted leaders like Emily to steady the ship and return common sense, people-centered solutions back to our communities,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried wrote in a statement.Democrats celebrated both elections as their latest triumphs ahead of the midterm elections, when Democrats are hoping to flip control ofThe victories are also notable because Florida has become an increasingly conservative state. Throughout the 2000s and 2010s, Florida was known as a premier battleground, backing former President Barack Obama in both of his presidential bids. But it has shifted rightward, backing Trump by double-digits in his most recent election., but the influx of conservative retirees and rightward shift of Latino voters have dimmed hopes about their future in the state. Special election results aren’t always predictive of the midterms, but these races are a boon to Democrats’ optimism that they could compete statewide in Florida in November. Florida will be home to a number of key elections, including the open gubernatorial race to replace GOP Governor Ron DeSantis, the Senate seat held by Republican Senator Ashley Moody, and a handful of potentially competitive House races. There are five GOP-held House seats Trump won by fewer than 15 points, though Republicans are favored in all of those races, according to the Cook Political Report. Democrats are hoping to lead with an economic message reflected in Fried’s statement, highlighting inflation and the cost of living that has continued under the Trump administration. But Republicans are likely to try to shift focus to other issues—including the allegations against Representative Cherfilus-McCormick.for allegedly stealing $5 million in Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster-relief funds and funneling the money into her 2021 congressional campaign. An indictment by the Department of Justice alleges that Cherfilus-McCormick and her brother Edwin Cherfilus diverted an overpayment linked to a COVID-19 vaccination-staffing contract awarded to their family home-health-care business. Prosecutors say the funds were laundered through multiple accounts to mask their origin, with a substantial portion routed from the FEMA contract into campaign contributions, and that the congresswoman also conspired with her tax preparer to file a false federal return. “This is an unjust, baseless, sham indictment — and I am innocent. The timing alone is curious and clearly meant to distract from far more pressing national issues. From day one, I have fully cooperated with every lawful request, and I will continue to do so until this matter is resolved,” she wrote in a statement released November 20, 2025. She added that she is “deeply grateful for the support” of her district and remains “confident that the truth will prevail.”The congresswoman’s criminal trial is not set to begin until next month, but she is set to face an ethics trial within the House of Representatives’ Ethics Committee on Thursday, just days after Democrats’ victories in those special elections.“So-called ‘Leader’ Hakeem Jeffries talks a big game on corruption, but when it’s one of his own, he suddenly loses his voice. Jeffries and House Democrats have the backbone of a wet paper straw,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella wrote in a press release on Wednesday. The scandal risks undermining Democrats’ anti-corruption message, Adam Cayton, professor of political science at the University of West Florida, told“Defending her probably increases the political harm. The damage to Democrats from a scandal involving someone who is not a statewide candidate or party leader is pretty limited unless more prominent figures seem committed to defending her,” he said. Democrats should join Republicans in condemning “whatever improper behavior has occurred” if they want to prevent the scandal from becoming salient to the public, he said. Republicans will “almost definitely use the scandal to attack other Democrats,” but the effects of scandals are usually fairly modest, he said. Electoral efforts of individual scandals are generally small because of how reliably partisan voters have become, he said, adding that people’s desire to see their party win generally “outweighs candidates' flaws and misdeeds.” “Only around 10 percent of the public are pure independents, and most of those will vote based on considerations other than a corrupt representative of FL-20,” he said. It probably won’t be a big issue in her district; she is already facing a well-funded primary challenge, and the district is solidly Democratic, he noted. “If she leaves or loses the nomination, whoever Democrats nominate should easily win. The biggest headache this could have caused would be if Democrats found themselves without a candidate in an otherwise winnable district,” he said. Republicans are likely to continue trying to use her allegations to attack Democrats, but it’s not clear whether that message will break through with voters who are more concerned about the economy, Craig Burnett, professor and department chair of political science at Florida Atlantic University, told“So, is it possible that Republicans could score political points — sure. Are they likely to score huge political points? It seems to me they would be better off spending their funds on something else. Breaking through in this environment where the economy and international affairs are likely to dominate the conversation is difficult,” he said.Democrats may face “some headache” because the legal drama could be distracting or other candidates, but it’s not likely to be a major issue.Republicans should instead focus on issues of affordability and improving their turnout—two of the issues that bolstered Democrats in Tuesday’s special elections, MacManus said, noting that Florida Democrats will be living “on that euphoria for a while.” House Democratic leadership has maintained that she is entitled to the presumption of innocence. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat, responded to Punchbowl News about whether the party’s anti-corruption message also applies to her. “Donald Trump is the most corrupt president in American history and everybody knows it. Sheila has been charged by this Department of Justice. She is entitled to her day in court,” Jeffries told the publication.Burnett said it is likely Democrats may do so as additional details about her alleged violations emerge. She’s not the first member of Congress who has faced allegations of violations in recent years. Former Representative George Santos, a New York Republican, wasAfter a failed vote to expel Santos in May 2023, Democrats launched attack ads against Democrats in competitive districts who did not vote to expel him. DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton, in a statement at the time, accused those members of being “too weak to buck party leadership” and “protecting” him.The House Ethics Committee has not made a final decision about whether she has committed the alleged violations; a decision could be made on that this week, Punchbowl reported. But any final decision about potential sanctions would not come until later, according to the media outlet., ours is different: The Courageous Center—it's not"both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you., you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations.
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