USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: Vulnerable at the record high by JosephTrevisani usdjpy majors
On Tuesday as the yen plummeted to a two decade low at 128.97, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki commented that “There are positive aspects to it, but given the current economic climate, strong negative aspects exist.”
The burgeoning yield spread between Japanese Government Bonds and US Treasuries has been the primary logic driving the USD/JPY higher. Between Federal Reserve aggression and the BoJ’s highly ambivalent concerns about the falling yen, markets will read no complications from Tokyo for a higher USD/JPY.
Treasury rates paused on Friday in their headlong ascent. The yield on the 10-year note is now at the high end of its range for the last decade. The 2-year return is considerably higher than its average since the financial crisis of 2008. Despite the Fed’s rhetorical promotion of the fed funds rate this year, it is likely that the Treasury market has already priced most of the potential rate increase.
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