US stocks usually rise in December, Morgan Stanley says
has delivered a median return of +1.5% during this month over the past 45 years, with positive results occurring 73% of the time. According to), the second half of December tends to outperform the first, with a median gain of +1.2% compared to just +0.2% in the earlier half.Similar to the S&P 500, small-cap stocks tend to see a more pronounced rally in the latter part of the month, with a median return of +2.7%, compared to a slight decline of -0.5% in the first half.
“We think incremental clarity on tariffs, in particular, will be helpful in terms of catalyzing further upside in these gauges,” strategists led by Michael J. Wilson said in a note. Meanwhile, the correlation between stock performance and bond yields remains in positive territory, the bank notes, signaling that equities are responding favorably to strong macroeconomic data.
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