The U.S. economy likely continued to churn out jobs at a brisk clip in March even though the labor market is losing its luster as Federal Reserve interest rate hikes dampen demand. | Reuters
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 239,000 last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Though that would be the smallest gain since December 2020, employment growth would still be more than double the 100,000 jobs per month that economists say is needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population.
Estimates ranged from 150,000 to 342,000, with risks tilted to the downside. The Labor Department’s annual revisions to the weekly claims and continuing claims data, which were published on Thursday, showed significant upgrades to both series. Economists said the revisions brought the claims series closer to other data that have suggested the labor market was losing speed.
Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3 percent in March after gaining 0.2percent in February. That would lower the annual increase in wages to 4.3 percent from 4.6 percent in February, still too high to be consistent with the Fed’s 2percent target. “This presents a lot of downside risks for the labor market,” said Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies in Bloomfield, New Jersey. “Over the next few months, we will see less hiring from small businesses as their access to credit becomes more constrained.”
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