The US and Iran have resumed direct tit-for-tat strikes, and the full resumption of war appears highly likely. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, remains effectively closed by a dual Iranian and US blockade, prolonging energy shortages and deepening fears of a global economic crisis.
As US and Iran trade tit-for-tat strikes, foreign policy analysts monitoring the developments tell TRT World that a resumption of hostilities after the signing of the June MoU was inevitable and only a matter of timing.
Nearly five months after the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran, and the subsequent deal pausing it, the Strait of Hormuz - a critical chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of global energy supplies - once again remains effectively closed by a dual Iranian and US blockade, prolonging energy shortages and deepening fears of a global economic crisis. Before February 28 this year, the narrow waterway linking the Gulf to the Arabian Sea operated without restriction, allowing daily oil exports from Gulf producers to flow freely to international markets.
Following the initial joint US-Israeli strikes that triggered a major regional war impacting nearly all GCC countries and beyond, Iran effectively shut the strait in response. Almost a month into the war, mediator Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja M. Asif publicly questioned the shifting aims of the warring parties. In a social media post, he wrote that 'the goal of the war seems to have shifted to opening the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war.
' Today, more than 140 days since the US and Israeli attacks and the signing of a Pakistan-mediated Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) intended to end the fighting, the strait has still not reopened to normal commercial shipping. Instead, the US and Iran have resumed direct tit-for-tat strikes and the full resumption of war appears highly likely. According to Iranian media reports, US forces have struck railways, airports, desalination plants and bridges inside Iran.
In retaliation, Iran says it has been carrying out strikes in Gulf states, including Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, hitting American military bases and desalination plants. Iran escalated the situation by suspending its commitments to the MoU, stating that it was preoccupied with defending the country against US attacks. Foreign policy analysts monitoring developments believe that a resumption of fighting following the signing of the MoU was inevitable and merely a question of timing.
'The return of armed conflict was to be expected, given the two sides' differing goals regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The June MoU had major ambiguity, so in the absence of a common vision it couldn't withstand the pressures put on it,' Alan Eyre, a former senior US diplomat, tells TRT World
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