U.S. intel warned a war in Iran wouldn’t trigger regime change, undercutting claims the conflict could end quickly.
A U.S. intelligence assessment completed shortly before the United States and Israel launched a war in Iran had determined that American military intervention was not likely to lead to regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two people familiar with the finding.
The National Intelligence Council's assessment in February concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed, according to the two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the classified report. The determination undercuts the administration’s assertion that it can complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly, perhaps in a matter of weeks. The administration has asserted that it was not seeking regime change in Iran, even as the strikes have taken out many figures in the Iranian leadership and President Donald Trump considers whom he would like to see lead the country.The intelligence assessment concluded that no one powerful or unified opposition coalition was poised to take over in Iran if the leadership was killed, according to the people familiar with the report. It determined that Iran’s establishment would attempt to preserve continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, the people said. In line with the assessment’s findings, Iran’s leading clerics on Sunday chose a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed his father, who was killed in the war’s opening salvo. The son is believed to hold views that are even more hardline than his father, and his selection is a strong sign of resistance from Iran’s leadership and an indication the government won’t step aside quickly.Trump and other top administration leaders have given different justifications for the strikes that began on Feb. 28, saying they were necessary to set back Iran's nuclear weapons program or to preempt an Iranian ballistic missile attack. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the war is not aimed at regime change, Trump has said it's something he wants to see. A spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the assessment on Monday and referred questions to the White House. Director Tulsi Gabbard fired the council's acting chairperson last year after the release of a declassified NIC memo that contradicted statements the Trump administration has used to justify deporting Venezuelan immigrants. Trump, dating back to his first term, has been deeply skeptical of the U.S. intelligence community and has frequently dismissed its findings as politically motivated or part of a “deep state” effort to undermine his presidency. Richard Goldberg, director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction at the National Security Council during Trump’s first term, noted that there’s also a measure of skepticism toward the intelligence community because of some of its big misses in recent years. U.S. intelligence agencies widely failed to predict the rapid collapse of the Afghan government to the Taliban that transpired in 2021, with most assessments suggesting a much slower takeover. And in the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the ODNI, the Defense Department, and the CIA wrongly estimated that Kyiv would quickly fall to a bigger and better-equipped Russian military. Goldberg, who is now a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, said an intelligence assessment is “almost like an op-ed from the intelligence community.”Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani in Doral, Florida, and David Klepper in Washington contributed to this report.
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