The Fed's own economists don't know if the US will escape a recession or not. They say it's basically a coin toss.
The central bank's staff predicted that banks would keep pulling back on lending, tightening financial conditions and causing real gross domestic product to decline modestly for the next two quarters. They also forecast that unemployment would rise this year, peak in 2024, and hover around that level throughout 2025.
Even so, the Fed's in-house experts noted that buoyant consumer demand and the booming US job market could prevent the economy from shrinking. "Given the continued strength in labor market conditions and the resilience of consumer spending, however, the staff saw the possibility of the economy continuing to grow slowly and avoiding a downturn as almost as likely as the mild-recession baseline," the minutes read.
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