This article provides an in-depth analysis of the outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, exploring price action dynamics and several technical scenarios that could unfold in the days ahead.
The dollar fell slightly on Monday, but losses were moderate and probably contained by rallying U.S. Treasury yields. Many traders decided to take profits after the greenback's strong performance last week, while others avoided taking large directional positions in anticipation of high-impact events in the coming days, including the release of core PCE data and a speech by Powell – both on Friday.
EUR/USD climbed on Monday after rebounding off technical support located around the 1.0800 area, with prices approaching confluence resistance at 1.0835-1.0850. Bulls must be resolute in defending this barrier; any lapse could pave the way for a move towards 1.0890, followed by 1.0925. After enduring a harsh selloff last week, GBP/USD found stability on Monday, with cable reclaiming some lost ground upon encountering support at its 200-day SMA near 1.2600. Should the rebound gather strength in the days ahead, resistance levels await at 1.2675, 1.2700, and 1.2830 subsequently.
USD/JPY showed no clear direction on Monday after last week's surge, with the pair hovering just under last year’s peak at 152.00. A breach of this barrier might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene in support of the yen, potentially limiting the breakout's longevity. Nevertheless, absent FX intervention, a surge beyond 152.00 could set the stage for a push towards 154.40.
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