The US dollar’s rally looks tired against some of its peers ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium beginning Thursday. What is the outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY?
’s rally looks tired against some of its peers ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium beginning Thursday.
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on Friday at the three-day meeting of central bankers. He may provide an updated economic assessment. Above-expected industrial production and retail sales, solid housing starts raise the odds thatticked higher in July, suggesting the need for additional tightening. However, Powell could reiterate a data-dependent approach instead of pointing to any firm commitment.
EUR/USD is now entering a major converged floor which could contain the downside for now. This includes the 89-day moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. For the broader bullish trend to ease, the pair would need to crack below the 2023 lows of around 1.0500. On the upside, there is a stiff hurdle at the August 10 high of 1.1065. A break above the resistance is needed for the downside risks to dissipate.
GBP/USD is so far holding above fairly strong converged support around 1.2600 – the 89-day moving average, the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart, and the end-June low of 1.2600. Even if this floor breaks, there is stronger support on the 200-day moving average and the May low of 1.2300 – only a fall below this would raise the risk of an extended consolidation in the broader rally. On the upside, GBP/USD needs to rise above the August 10 high of 1.
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