US Dollar Index: Firmer yields defend DXY bulls above 103.00 ahead of US Retail Sales – by anilpanchal7 DollarIndex Fed YieldCurve China RetailSales
That said, the New York Fed’s one-year inflation expectations eased to 3.5% for July, down three points by falling to the lowest level since April 2021. New York Fed survey, however, also suggested confidence in positive labor market conditions and economic transition.
Also placating the sour sentiment could be the comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen who turned down fears to the US economy emanating from a likely slowdown in China. The policymaker cited the risks to the global economic developments from China’s slowdown, the Russia-Ukraine war and climate change-related disasters, as well as their spillover effects.
It’s worth observing that the looming debt crisis in China and its contagion impact, especially amid the fears that economic recovery in the world’s biggest industrial player fades, underpin the US Dollar’s haven demand if the easing US inflation concerns challenge thehawks. Also testing the market sentiment and favoring the DXY could be Russia’s firing of warning shots at a warship in the Black Sea and readiness to equip new nuclear submarines with hypersonic missiles.
While portraying the mood, Wall Street managed to close on the positive side due to the day-end recovery. However, the 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest level in nine months whereas the two-year counterpart also refreshed the monthly peak amid the market’s dumping of the Treasury bonds. It should be observed that such higher yields previously triggered recession woes and the risk-off sentiment which in turn favored the US Dollar due to its haven appeal.
Looking ahead, China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales for July will be closely observed amid fears of losing economic momentum in the world’s second-biggest economy. Later in the day, the US Retail Sales for the said month will be more important as market players keep betting on the Fed’s policy pivot in September, which in turn may weigh on the US Dollar should the scheduled data weakens.Although a one-month-old rising support line, around 102.
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