US Dollar Bulls Face Critical Test at 101.8 - Can CPI Trigger Breakout This Week?

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US Dollar Bulls Face Critical Test at 101.8 - Can CPI Trigger Breakout This Week?
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Forex Analysis by Investing.com (Günay Caymaz) covering: USD/JPY, US Dollar Index Futures, US Dollar Index. Read Investing.com (Günay Caymaz)'s latest article on Investing.com

The dollar kicked off the week on a positive note despite labor data coming in soft last week.For less than $9 a month, InvestingPro's Fair Value tool helps you find which stocks to hold and which to dump at the click of a buttonkicked off the week on a positive note, reflecting market reactions to last week’s mixed labor data. The US jobs report left traders uncertain, presenting conflicting signals on the state of the economy.

In the June Trump-Biden debate, Trump gained a significant lead by outperforming his rival, and this time, markets are paying close attention to how the Trump-Harris debate might shape the dollar’s trajectory. Trump's policy stances generally suggest a stronger dollar, while Harris' fiscal and monetary perspectives lean toward a weaker dollar outlook.The dollar index began the week on a cautious upward trend, continuing its recovery and reaching 101.5 in early trading.

However, if inflation shows signs of easing and Harris gains ground in the debate, we could see selling pressure on the dollar, leading the DXY to fall below the 101.4 support level.dropped by 1.8%, accelerating deflation, while CPI data remained below 1%, reflecting persistent economic weakness. Japan’s Q2 growth came in at 2.9%, missing expectations of 3.2% and signaling continued challenges in Asia's largest economies. This weak regional outlook is another factor supporting the dollar.

For a confirmed reversal in USD/JPY, the pair would need to break through the 145-146 resistance range with sustained weekly closes. If risk appetite increases, weak demand for the dollar could push the pair below 145, resuming its downward trend.This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, counsel or recommendation to invest as such it is not intended to incentivize the purchase of assets in any way.

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