Analysts with Toronto-Dominion Securities (TDS) note that US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures due this week are likely to see a mild printing for Se
Analysts with Toronto-Dominion Securities notethat US Consumer Price Index figures due this week are likely to see a mild printing for September. US CPI Scanner: Looking for firmer signs of deflationary pressures Our forecasts for the September CPI report suggest core price inflation stayed largely unchanged vs last month's 0.28% m/m gain. Indeed, we expect the series to print another “soft” 0.3% m/m increase. We also look for a 0.
Importantly, the report is likely to show that the core goods segment stayed modestly deflationary, while shelter-price gains probably slowed. Note that our unrounded core CPI inflation forecast is 0.26%, so we see a clear bias for a downside surprise to 0.2% m/m. We now look for headline CPI to slow to 3.2% y/y in 23Q4, after closing 2022 at a booming 7.1% y/y pace. For core CPI, we also project deceleration to a still strong 3.9% y/y in 23Q4 from 6.0% in 22Q4. ...
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