US CPI Preview: Could a Hot Inflation Report Revive a Fed Pause?

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US CPI Preview: Could a Hot Inflation Report Revive a Fed Pause?
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is likely to cut interest rates by 25bps regardless of the inflation reading, though a hotter-than-expected print could certainly raise some questions.

Crucially, the other key component to watch when it comes to US CPI is the so-called “base effects,” or the influence that the reference period has on the overall figure. Last November’s 0.1% m/m reading will drop out of the annual calculation after this week’s reading, opening the door for an increase in the headline year-over-year CPI reading as long as the month-over-month reading comes in higher than that.

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