US CPI data unlikely to ease sticky inflation worries, but will markets care?

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US CPI data unlikely to ease sticky inflation worries, but will markets care?
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Will CPI report boost rate cut bets? Inflation data according to the CPI and PCE measures have started to diverge lately, clouding the outlook just as the Fed seeks more clarity on where prices are headed.

US CPI inflation expected to have ticked up in March. But markets may shrug it off if core figure inches lower. Data due at 13:30 GMT, Wednesday, will be followed by FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT. Headline CPI has persisted above 3.0% since last summer, while core CPI has been declining at a snail’s pace. It’s a somewhat more favourable trend when looking at the personal consumption expenditures metric that the Fed prefers to focus on. The headline PCE price index rose marginally to 2.

Yet, there’s still a tendency to put more weight to the soft indicators than the hot data and this is keeping a lid on dollar gains. For example, the drop in the ISM services prices paid index more than offset the impact from the jump in manufacturing prices days earlier as well as hawkish commentary from Fed officials during the week. Meanwhile, cooling wage pressures in the March NFP numbers were enough to keep jitters over accelerating jobs growth to a minimum.

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